University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 46.0 to 48.9 at 41.5%, ahead of 43.0 to 45.9 at 18.5%. $45K traded across 7 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0 to 48.9 | 41.5% | +2.0 |
| 43.0 to 45.9 | 18.5% | +1.5 |
| 49.0 to 51.9 | 17.1% | 0.0 |
| 52.0 to 54.9 | 4.6% | +1.3 |
| 55.0+ | 3.5% | 0.0 |
| <40.0 | 3.4% | 0.0 |
| 40.0 to 42.9 | 1.7% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for November 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for November 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for November 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on November 20, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 46.0 to 48.9 is the favorite at 41.5%, followed by 43.0 to 45.9 at 18.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 20, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $45K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $7K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.