Core PCE YoY - October 2026: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 3.2% at 38.5%, ahead of 3.1% at 28.5%. $11K traded across 7 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
PCEEconomyCore PCEInflationRecurring
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2% | 38.5% | -4.5 |
| 3.1% | 28.5% | +6.0 |
| 3.3% | 27.5% | +10.5 |
| 3.0% | 14.9% | +2.8 |
| 2.9% | 7.0% | -2.0 |
| ≤2.8% | 1.2% | -2.1 |
| 3.4%+ | 0.5% | -5.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:13 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending October 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for October 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on November 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Core PCE YoY - October 2026"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 3.2% is the favorite at 38.5%, followed by 3.1% at 28.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 25, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $11K in total and $5K in the last 24 hours, with about $10K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.