How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Below 4.8% at 69.0%, ahead of Below 4.7% at 45.5%. $522K traded across 16 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
EconomyBusinessFinanceFed RatesTrump
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Below 4.8% | 69.0% | -0.5 |
| Below 4.7% | 45.5% | -0.5 |
| Below 4.6% | 25.5% | -1.0 |
| Below 4.5% | 14.4% | +0.4 |
| Below 4.4% | 11.0% | -0.5 |
| Below 4.3% | 10.5% | +0.2 |
| Below 4.2% | 5.3% | -0.1 |
| Below 3.8% | 3.8% | -0.6 |
| Below 4.1% | 3.6% | -0.8 |
| Below 3.9% | 3.5% | 0.0 |
| Below 3.6% | 2.5% | -0.1 |
| Below 1.0% | 2.3% | -0.5 |
| Below 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| Below 3.0% | 1.7% | -0.1 |
| Below 3.5% | 1.6% | -0.1 |
| Below 3.7% | 1.6% | -0.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Below 4.8% is the favorite at 69.0%, followed by Below 4.7% at 45.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $522K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $42K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.