What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is ↑ 4.25% at 67.8%, ahead of ↓ 1.5% at 2.3%. $1.9M traded across 20 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
EconomyPoliticsFed RatesEconomic PolicyFed
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ 4.25% | 67.8% | -9.4 |
| ↓ 1.5% | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| ↓ 0.25% | 2.3% | -0.1 |
| ↓ 2.0% | 2.1% | +0.1 |
| ↑ 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| ↑ 5.25% | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| ↑ 5.0% | 2.0% | -0.1 |
| ↓ 1.25% | 1.9% | +0.1 |
| ↓ 0.5% | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| ↓ 2.25% | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| ↓ 0% | 1.8% | -0.1 |
| ↓ 3.0% | 1.8% | -0.7 |
| ↑ 4.5% | 1.7% | -0.7 |
| ↑ 4.75% | 1.7% | -0.1 |
| ↓ 0.75% | 1.7% | 0.0 |
| ↓ 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.1 |
| ↓ 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| ↓ 2.75% | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| ↓ 3.25% | 1.6% | +0.1 |
| ↓ 1.75% | 1.4% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, ↑ 4.25% is the favorite at 67.8%, followed by ↓ 1.5% at 2.3%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.9M in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $378K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.