Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Anthropic at 48.0%, ahead of Meta at 10.5%. $240K traded across 14 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 48.0% | +2.5 |
| Meta | 10.5% | +2.0 |
| OpenAI | 9.0% | -6.5 |
| xAI | 5.0% | 0.0 |
| Baidu | 3.5% | +0.5 |
| Alibaba | 3.4% | 0.0 |
| DeepSeek | 3.2% | 0.0 |
| Z.ai | 2.8% | 0.0 |
| Microsoft | 2.8% | -0.1 |
| Moonshot | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| Mistral | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Meituan | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Amazon | 2.2% | +0.4 |
| ByteDance | 1.8% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Anthropic is the favorite at 48.0%, followed by Meta at 10.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $240K in total and $632 in the last 24 hours, with about $42K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.