OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is $800B at 68.7%, ahead of $1T at 54.5%. $1.6M traded across 7 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| $800B | 68.7% | -4.3 |
| $1T | 54.5% | -9.0 |
| $1.4T | 53.5% | -2.0 |
| $1.2T | 52.5% | -10.0 |
| $2T | 38.0% | +5.0 |
| $1.6T | 36.0% | +3.0 |
| $1.8T | 30.0% | -0.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:54 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, $800B is the favorite at 68.7%, followed by $1T at 54.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.6M in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $17K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.