Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used. JetBlue Airways: "JetBlue Airways" (or "JetBlue") refers to JetBlue Airways Corporation (Nasdaq: JBLU), the parent company of the JetBlue group, or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, JetBlue Airways Corporation and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of JetBlue's business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test. A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision. The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other defaul

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used. "Frontier Airlines" refers to Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: ULCC), the parent company of the Frontier group, its operating subsidiary Frontier Airlines, Inc., or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of Frontier Airlines' business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they m