What are the odds that Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.2% and No at 97.8%, on $262K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$262K in total and $57 in the last 24 hours, with about $23K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Live market data

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.2% (+0.5 pts in 24h). $262K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.2%

No 97.8% · Trade →

24h move

+0.5

pts · 7d -1.8

Volume

$262K

24h $57 · liquidity $23K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Business Finance Economy Fed Rates Fed

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	2.2%	+0.5	-1.8	$262K	0.6¢
No	97.8%	-0.5	+1.8	$262K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.2% and No at 97.8%, on $262K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $262K in total and $57 in the last 24 hours, with about $23K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.