What are the odds that Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.3% and No at 97.7%, on $19K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$19K in total and $812 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Live market data

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.3% (+0.7 pts in 24h). $19K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.3%

No 97.7% · Trade →

24h move

+0.7

pts · 7d +0.4

Volume

$19K

24h $812 · liquidity $1K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Tesla Business Finance Tech Big Tech

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	2.3%	+0.7	+0.4	$19K	1.2¢
No	97.7%	-0.7	-0.4	$19K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.3% and No at 97.7%, on $19K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $19K in total and $812 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.