Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://x.com/MarathonFusion/status/2113001073019662481) This market will resolve to "Yes" if high-rate alchemy is confirmed through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "High-rate alchemy" refers to the experimental production of stable gold-197 from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators) at an average rate of more than 800,000 gold-197 atoms per second. For reference, CERN's ALICE collaboration reported a maximum rate of approximately 89,000 gold nuclei per second in May 2025. The production rate will be calculated as the total number of gold-197 atoms produced by the irradiation, including gold-197 resulting from the decay of mercury-197 created during the irradiation, divided by the total duration of the neutron irradiation. Confirmations that only establish that some gold was produced from mercury, that establish a lower production rate, that rely on neutrons not generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions, or that are based on simulations or modeling without an experimental demonstration will not qualify. The qualifying confirmation methods are: (i) Peer-reviewed publication: experimental results demonstrating high-rate alchemy, whether by Marathon Fusion or by other researchers, are published in a reputable peer-reviewed scientific journal. Preprints and other publications that have not completed peer review will not qualify. (ii) Independent verification: a credible scientific institution unaffiliated with Marathon Fusion (e.g., a national laboratory, university research group, or accredited analytical laboratory) publicly confirms, based on its own measurements of material irradiated in Marathon Fusion's experiment or its direct observation of that experiment, that high-rate alchemy was achieved. The confirmation must be published by the verifying institution itself; confirmations relayed only by Marathon Fusion will not qualify. (iii) Independent replication: researchers unaffiliated with Marathon Fusion or the authors of the paper titled "Scalable Chrysopoeia via (n, 2n) Reactions Drive