What are the odds that Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 1.8% and No at 98.2%, on $199K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$199K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $7K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Live market data

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 1.8% (0.0 pts in 24h). $199K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

1.8%

No 98.2% · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d +0.1

Volume

$199K

24h $0 · liquidity $7K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

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All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	1.8%	0.0	+0.1	$199K	1.2¢
No	98.2%	0.0	-0.1	$199K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 1.8% and No at 98.2%, on $199K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $199K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $7K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.