What are the odds that Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 4.3% and No at 95.8%, on $12K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$12K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

Live market data

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 4.3% (-0.4 pts in 24h). $12K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

4.3%

No 95.8% · Trade →

24h move

-0.4

pts · 7d -1.0

Volume

$12K

24h $0 · liquidity $3K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

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All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	4.3%	-0.4	-1.0	$12K	7.1¢
No	95.8%	+0.4	+1.0	$12K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 4% risks 4¢ to win 96¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 4.3% and No at 95.8%, on $12K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $12K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.