November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 1st hottest at 94.0%, ahead of 2nd hottest at 5.5%. $11K traded across 4 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
ScienceWeatherRecurringGlobal Temp
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 1st hottest | 94.0% | +0.5 |
| 2nd hottest | 5.5% | -0.5 |
| 3rd hottest | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 4th or lower | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 1st hottest is the favorite at 94.0%, followed by 2nd hottest at 5.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 29, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $11K in total and $20 in the last 24 hours, with about $42K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.