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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is November 30, 2026 at 94.0%, ahead of Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? at 73.5%. $66K traded across 6 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

94.0%
November 30, 2026 · Trade →

24h move

+5.0
pts · 7d +18.4

Volume

$66K
24h $5K · liquidity $5K

Closes

July 1, 2027
237 days left

TechSpaceXCultureScienceBig Tech

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
November 30, 202694.0% +5.0+18.4$15K3.7¢
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?73.5% -4.5-3.5$8K3.0¢
Chopsticks catch Starship?51.5% -5.5+0.5$11K33.0¢
Successful splash down?34.5% +2.0-0.5$1K25.0¢
Super Heavy booster explodes?25.0% +7.5-28.5$6K8.0¢
November 15, 202620.0% +8.5+9.0$9K10.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%09-2910-1811-06
November 30, 2026Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?Chopsticks catch Starship?Successful splash down?

Market rules and resolution

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15.

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying November 30, 2026 at 94% risks 94¢ to win 6¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?"?
As of November 6, 2026, November 30, 2026 is the favorite at 94.0%, followed by Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? at 73.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$66K in total and $5K in the last 24 hours, with about $5K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.