Live market data
New pandemic in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 1.8% (-0.1 pts in 24h). $1.3M has traded on this market.
Yes probability
1.8%
No 98.2% · Trade →
24h move
-0.1
pts · 7d -1.5
Volume
$1.3M
24h $959 · liquidity $49K
Closes
January 1, 2027
56 days left
PandemicsClimate & ScienceHantavirusWorldScience
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.8% | -0.1 |
| No | 98.2% | +0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Price history
Yes
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
How to read this market
Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the odds that New pandemic in 2026?
- As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 1.8% and No at 98.2%, on $1.3M of total volume.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.3M in total and $959 in the last 24 hours, with about $49K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.