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Home / Markets / OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
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OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 6.0% (-1.0 pts in 24h). $88 has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

6.0%
No 94.0% · Trade →

24h move

-1.0
pts · 7d -0.5

Volume

$88
24h $0 · liquidity $122

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

AIMathTechOpenAIScience

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes6.0% -1.0-0.5$886.0¢
No94.0% +1.0+0.5$88–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/). A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 6% risks 6¢ to win 94¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 6.0% and No at 94.0%, on $88 of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$88 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $122 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.