Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is December 31, 2027 at 18.0%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 15.0%. $1.2M traded across 3 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 18.0% | +3.5 |
| June 30, 2027 | 15.0% | 0.0 |
| December 31, 2026 | 4.8% | +0.6 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 18.0%, followed by June 30, 2027 at 15.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.2M in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $101K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.