Who is favored in "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?"?

As of November 6, 2026, ↑5k is the favorite at 99.9%, followed by ↑5.5k at 97.5%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$8.3M in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $19K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Live market data

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is ↑5k at 99.9%, ahead of ↑5.5k at 97.5%. $8.3M traded across 8 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

99.9%

↑5k · Trade →

24h move

+0.4

pts · 7d +2.0

Volume

$8.3M

24h $4K · liquidity $19K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Rewards 20, 4.5, 50 Climate & Science Weather Pandemics Science

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
↑5k	99.9%	+0.4	+2.0	$345K	0.1¢
↑5.5k	97.5%	+0.1	+5.3	$5K	2.4¢
↑6k	86.0%	-1.5	+11.5	$32K	2.0¢
↑6.5k	76.5%	+2.0	+22.5	$129K	3.0¢
↑7k	41.5%	-3.5	+3.0	$8K	5.0¢
↑7.5k	21.5%	+3.0	+2.0	$229K	1.0¢
↑10k	5.1%	+0.1	-2.9	$6.5M	1.1¢
↑12.5k	3.3%	0.0	-1.8	$362K	3.6¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

↑5k↑5.5k↑6k↑6.5k

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying ↑5k at 100% risks 100¢ to win 0¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?"?: As of November 6, 2026, ↑5k is the favorite at 99.9%, followed by ↑5.5k at 97.5%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $8.3M in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $19K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.