How many US births in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 3.56M–3.59M at 40.5%, ahead of 3.53M–3.56M at 36.5%. $17K traded across 7 outcomes.
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All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 3.56M–3.59M | 40.5% | +1.5 |
| 3.53M–3.56M | 36.5% | -1.0 |
| 3.59M–3.62M | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| 3.65M+ | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| 3.62M–3.65M | 5.3% | 0.0 |
| 3.50M–3.53M | 2.7% | -0.1 |
| <3.50M | 0.3% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the total number of births in the United States in 2026, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027. Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures published only in data dashboards, data files, or statistical tables rather than in such a report, will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The report is expected to be made available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm If NCHS does not release its annual provisional births report for 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: The relevant data will be the total number of births in the United States in 2026 as stated in the annual provisional births report for 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of this report will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "How many US births in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 3.56M–3.59M is the favorite at 40.5%, followed by 3.53M–3.56M at 36.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on May 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $17K in total and $121 in the last 24 hours, with about $21K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.