Precipitation in London in November?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 100mm+ at 24.5%, ahead of 50-60mm at 19.0%. $2K traded across 7 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
ScienceWeatherRecurringPrecipitation
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 100mm+ | 24.5% | -11.5 |
| 50-60mm | 19.0% | -13.0 |
| <30mm | 18.0% | 0.0 |
| 30-40mm | 15.0% | -1.5 |
| 60-75mm | 15.0% | +0.5 |
| 40-50mm | 14.0% | -16.5 |
| 75-100mm | 13.5% | -2.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in November, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for November 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of November 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by February 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Precipitation in London in November?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 100mm+ is the favorite at 24.5%, followed by 50-60mm at 19.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on February 8, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $2K in total and $240 in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.