Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Ramsey Number R(5,5) at 25.5%, ahead of Hodge Conjecture at 19.5%. $67K traded across 14 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
AIMathTechScienceMillennium Prize
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Ramsey Number R(5,5) | 25.5% | +1.0 |
| Hodge Conjecture | 19.5% | 0.0 |
| Yang-Mills | 18.5% | 0.0 |
| Hadamard Matrix Conjecture | 16.5% | 0.0 |
| Hadwiger-Nelson Problem | 15.0% | -0.5 |
| Beal's Conjecture | 14.0% | 0.0 |
| Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer | 11.5% | +0.5 |
| Twin Prime Conjecture | 8.5% | +0.5 |
| Riemann Hypothesis | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Collatz Conjecture | 7.0% | 0.0 |
| Odd Perfect Number | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Strong Goldbach Conjecture | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| P versus NP | 4.4% | -0.1 |
| Legendre's Conjecture | 4.0% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Ramsey Number R(5,5) is the favorite at 25.5%, followed by Hodge Conjecture at 19.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $67K in total and $209 in the last 24 hours, with about $11K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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