Who is favored in "Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?"?

As of November 6, 2026, 5000+ is the favorite at 99.3%, followed by 5600+ at 85.0%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$3K in total and $109 in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?

Live market data

Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Measles cases in U.S. by November 30? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is 5000+ at 99.3%, ahead of 5600+ at 85.0%. $3K traded across 4 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

99.3%

5000+ · Trade →

24h move

+0.1

pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$3K

24h $109 · liquidity $2K

Closes

December 1, 2026

25 days left

Measles Science Weather Pandemics Recurring

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	Volume	Spread
5000+	99.3%	+0.1	$522	1.3¢
5600+	85.0%	+5.5	$729	8.0¢
5800+	55.5%	+3.5	$183	21.0¢
6000+	45.0%	+5.0	$1K	48.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

5000+5600+5800+6000+

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 5000+ at 99% risks 99¢ to win 1¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?"?: As of November 6, 2026, 5000+ is the favorite at 99.3%, followed by 5600+ at 85.0%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $3K in total and $109 in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?All live markets Markets resolving this week Prediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.