Live market data
Iran Nuke before 2027?: live odds and probabilities
Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.5% (-0.8 pts in 24h). $1.6M has traded on this market.
Yes probability
2.5%
No 97.5% · Trade →
24h move
-0.8
pts · 7d -2.6
Volume
$1.6M
24h $8K · liquidity $112K
Closes
January 1, 2027
56 days left
NuclearPoliticsWorldGeopoliticsIran
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.5% | -0.8 |
| No | 97.5% | +0.8 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Price history
Yes
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
How to read this market
Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the odds that Iran Nuke before 2027?
- As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.5% and No at 97.5%, on $1.6M of total volume.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.6M in total and $8K in the last 24 hours, with about $112K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.