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Home / Markets / Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
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Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 3.4% (-1.7 pts in 24h). $552K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:31 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

3.4%
No 96.7% · Trade →

24h move

-1.7
pts · 7d -5.1

Volume

$552K
24h $21K · liquidity $76K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

IsraelTurkeyMiddle EastSyriaGeopolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes3.4% -1.7-5.1$552K0.5¢
No96.7% +1.7+5.1$552K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:31 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-0605-0711-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.4% and No at 96.7%, on $552K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$552K in total and $21K in the last 24 hours, with about $76K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.