What are the odds that US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.8% and No at 97.2%, on $684K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$684K in total and $7K in the last 24 hours, with about $38K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

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US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.8% (+0.5 pts in 24h). $684K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.8%

No 97.2% · Trade →

24h move

+0.5

pts · 7d -1.4

Volume

$684K

24h $7K · liquidity $38K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Reza Pahlavi Iran Regime U.S. x Iran Geopolitics World

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	2.8%	+0.5	-1.4	$684K	1.2¢
No	97.2%	-0.5	+1.4	$684K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.8% and No at 97.2%, on $684K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $684K in total and $7K in the last 24 hours, with about $38K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.