Live market data
Federal Reserve: live prediction market odds
Every active Polymarket market mentioning Federal Reserve, ranked by activity, plus how recent ones resolved.
Live markets
36
mentioning Federal Reserve
Total volume
$85.7M
across live markets
Most traded
65%
25 bps increase in "Fed Decision in December?"
Live markets about Federal Reserve
| Market | Favorite | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? closes December 10, 2026 | 25 bps increase | 64.5% | -13.0 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? closes January 1, 2027 | 0 (0 bps) | 97.2% | -0.6 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? closes December 10, 2026 | Yes | 65.5% | -12.0 |
| Fed Decision in January? closes January 28, 2027 | No change | 74.5% | -3.0 |
| Fed Decision in March? closes March 18, 2027 | No change | 60.5% | +13.0 |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? closes January 1, 2027 | 2 (50 bps) | 64.5% | -13.0 |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) closes December 9, 2026 | Hike–Pause–Hike | 65.5% | -12.0 |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) closes January 27, 2027 | Pause-Hike-Pause | 66.0% | -6.5 |
| How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? closes December 31, 2026 | Below 4.55% | 76.5% | +24.0 |
| Fed Decision in April? closes April 28, 2027 | No change | 58.5% | +2.5 |
| How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? closes January 1, 2027 | 5.3% | 20.0% | -6.0 |
| Fed rate cut by...? closes January 29, 2028 | July 2027 Meeting | 51.0% | +0.5 |
| How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? closes December 31, 2026 | 5.00% | 34.5% | -8.5 |
| What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? closes December 31, 2026 | ↑ 4.25% | 67.7% | -9.5 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November? closes December 1, 2026 | Below 4.82% | 75.5% | +17.0 |
| How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? closes December 31, 2026 | Below 5.25% | 92.0% | +4.0 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? closes January 1, 2027 | Below 4.8% | 69.0% | +5.5 |
| How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027? closes January 1, 2027 | Below 4.40% | 74.0% | +15.0 |
| How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? closes December 31, 2026 | 5.40% | 51.5% | -19.0 |
| How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in November? closes December 1, 2026 | 5.73% | 43.5% | +35.5 |
| Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31? closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 8.0% | -7.0 |
| How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in November? closes December 1, 2026 | 5.06% | 32.0% | -7.0 |
| How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in November? closes December 1, 2026 | Below 4.44% | 73.5% | +11.5 |
| How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in November? closes December 1, 2026 | 4.83% | 42.0% | -4.5 |
| How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in November? closes December 1, 2026 | 4.68% | 36.5% | -16.0 |
| How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027? closes January 1, 2027 | 4.75% | 59.1% | -11.6 |
| How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November? closes December 1, 2026 | Below 4.59% | 72.0% | +3.5 |
| How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in November? closes December 1, 2026 | Below 5.02% | 61.0% | +3.5 |
| Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...? closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 6.3% | -2.1 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.2% | +0.4 |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...? closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 4.5% | -1.5 |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting? closes January 28, 2027 | 0 | 54.0% | -3.5 |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting? closes December 10, 2026 | 0 | 70.0% | -1.0 |
| Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…? closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair closes January 1, 2027 | Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% | 97.2% | 0.0 |
| What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027? closes January 1, 2028 | 4.25% | 31.5% | +3.0 |
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Recently resolved
| Market | Result |
|---|---|
| What will be the next Fed rate change? December 31, 2028 | Yes |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? December 31, 2026 | Kevin Warsh |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? December 9, 2026 | Yes |
| Fed rate hike by...? October 29, 2026 | September Meeting |
| Fed decision in April? April 29, 2026 | No change |
| Fed decision in March? March 18, 2026 | No change |
| Fed rate cut by...? January 28, 2026 | October meeting |
| Fed decision in January? January 28, 2026 | No change |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2025? December 31, 2025 | 3 (75 bps) |
| Fed emergency rate cut in 2025? December 31, 2025 | No |
| Fed rate hike in 2025? December 10, 2025 | No |
| Fed rate cut by...? December 10, 2025 | September meeting |
About this page
Rate decisions, cuts, hikes and the Fed chair. Prices come from Polymarket and read as probabilities. They are set by traders, move with news, and are not forecasts by BetG8. Each market page carries the full rules, a price chart and volume.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the odds on Federal Reserve right now?
- The most traded live market is "Fed Decision in December?", where 25 bps increase is priced at 64.5% as of November 6, 2026. 36 live markets mention Federal Reserve.
- How do I bet on Federal Reserve?
- These are prediction market contracts, not sportsbook bets. Each pays $1 if the outcome happens. Access depends on your location; see the market page and our legality guides before trading.