How did "Fed rate hike in 2026?" resolve?

It resolved Yes around December 9, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 95.5% one day before close, 74.5% one week before and 48.5% one month before.

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Fed rate hike in 2026?: result and scorecard

Name: Fed rate hike in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 95.5%; a week before, 74.5%. $10.1M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved September 16, 2026

Price 1 day before

95.5%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

74.5%

30 days before: 48.5%

Volume

$10.1M

1 outcome

CPI Release Fed Economic Policy Jerome Powell Economy

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$10.1M
No	LOST	$10.1M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 96% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Fed rate hike in 2026?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around December 9, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 95.5% one day before close, 74.5% one week before and 48.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $10.1M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.