How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in November?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 4.83% at 48.5%, ahead of 4.87% at 34.5%. $2K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
EconomyFinanceFed RatesRecurringTreasuries
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 4.83% | 48.5% | +3.5 |
| 4.87% | 34.5% | -6.5 |
| 4.91% | 30.0% | -14.5 |
| 4.95% | 24.5% | -18.5 |
| 4.99% | 23.0% | -12.5 |
| 5.03% | 15.0% | -1.0 |
| 5.07% | 14.0% | +3.5 |
| 5.12% | 8.0% | -7.0 |
| 5.17% | 6.0% | -3.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in November?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 4.83% is the favorite at 48.5%, followed by 4.87% at 34.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $2K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.