Resolved market scorecard
How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?: result and scorecard
Resolved 3 (75 bps). One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 96.3%; a week before, 93.5%. $31.4M traded in total.
Result
3 (75 bps)
resolved December 10, 2025
Price 1 day before
96.3%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
93.5%
30 days before: 69.5%
Volume
$31.4M
9 outcomes
Fed RatesBusiness2025 PredictionsEconomic PolicyFed
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| 3 (75 bps) | WON |
| 7 (175 bps) | LOST |
| 8 or more (200+ bps) | LOST |
| 2 (50 bps) | LOST |
| 0 | LOST |
| 4 (100 bps) | LOST |
| 1 (25 bps) | LOST |
| 6 (150 bps) | LOST |
| 5 (125 bps) | LOST |
Price history to resolution
3 (75 bps)7 (175 bps)8 or more (200+ bps)2 (50 bps)
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 96% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This is a market group over how many Fed rate cuts will happen in 2025.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?" resolve?
- It resolved 3 (75 bps) around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 96.3% one day before close, 93.5% one week before and 69.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $31.4M across 9 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.