Fed rate cut by...?: result and scorecard
Resolved October meeting. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.5%; a week before, 97.4%. $1.5M traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Fed RatesJerome PowellEconomic PolicyFedEconomy
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| October meeting | WON |
| January meeting | WON |
| December meeting | WON |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between September 18 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2025, currently scheduled for October 28–29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no relevant statement is released for this meeting by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, and no qualifying rate cut is announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Fed rate cut by...?" resolve?
- It resolved October meeting around January 28, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.5% one day before close, 97.4% one week before and 84.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $1.5M across 3 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.