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Home / Markets / Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Resolved market scorecard

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?: result and scorecard

Resolved Kevin Warsh. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 93.3%; a week before, 93.9%. $617.3M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:31 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Kevin Warsh
resolved March 4, 2026

Price 1 day before

93.3%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

93.9%
30 days before: 98.4%

Volume

$617.3M
39 outcomes

Parent For DerivativeJerome PowellPoliticsTrump PresidencyTrump

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Kevin WarshWON$59.9M
Rick RiederOPEN$0
James BullardOPEN$5K
Judy SheltonLOST$127.7M
Scott BessentLOST$38.7M
Kevin HassettLOST$36.1M
Rick RiederLOST$35.6M
Christopher WallerLOST$29.2M
Jerome PowellLOST$27.9M
Michelle BowmanLOST$26.0M
No one nominated before 2027LOST$24.7M
Bill PulteLOST$24.5M
Donald TrumpLOST$23.6M
Stephen MiranLOST$22.8M
Janet YellenLOST$21.3M
Arthur LafferLOST$21.2M
Barron TrumpLOST$20.9M
David ZervosLOST$17.9M
Ron PaulLOST$12.7M
Philip JeffersonLOST$10.8M
Larry KudlowLOST$10.4M
David MalpassLOST$6.3M
Larry LindseyLOST$6.1M
Marc SumerlinLOST$4.3M
Howard LutnickLOST$3.0M
Lorie K. LoganLOST$2.9M
James BullardLOST$2.8M
Individual PLOST$0
Individual QLOST$0
Individual RLOST$0
Individual SLOST$0
Individual TLOST$0
Individual ULOST$0
Individual VLOST$0
Individual WLOST$0
Individual XLOST$0
Individual YLOST$0
Individual ZLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%08-0611-1903-04
Kevin WarshJames BullardJudy Shelton
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 93% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" resolve?
It resolved Kevin Warsh around December 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 93.3% one day before close, 93.9% one week before and 98.4% one month before.
How much was traded?
$617.3M across 39 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.