How did "Fed rate hike in 2025?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 10, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.6% one day before close, 99.4% one week before and 98.7% one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

Fed rate hike in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: Fed rate hike in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.6%; a week before, 99.4%. $1.2M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved December 10, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.6%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.4%

30 days before: 98.7%

Volume

$1.2M

1 outcome

Fed Rates Business 2025 Predictions Economic Policy Fed

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$1.2M
No	WON	$1.2M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Fed rate hike in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 10, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.6% one day before close, 99.4% one week before and 98.7% one month before.
How much was traded?: $1.2M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.