How did "Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.9% one week before and 98.6% one month before.

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Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: Fed emergency rate cut in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 99.9%. $1.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.9%

30 days before: 98.6%

Volume

$1.6M

1 outcome

Business Economy 2025 Predictions Economic Policy Fed Rates

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$1.6M
No	WON	$1.6M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.9% one week before and 98.6% one month before.
How much was traded?: $1.6M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.