Fed rate hike by...?: result and scorecard
Resolved September Meeting. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 90.5%; a week before, 53.5%. $3.9M traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
FedJerome PowellInflationFinancefomc
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| September Meeting | WON |
| October Meeting | WON |
| July Meeting | LOST |
| April Meeting | LOST |
| June Meeting | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Fed rate hike by...?" resolve?
- It resolved September Meeting around October 29, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 90.5% one day before close, 53.5% one week before and 30.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $3.9M across 5 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.