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Home / Markets / Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31?
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Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 8.5% (-6.5 pts in 24h). $4K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

8.5%
No 91.5% · Trade →

24h move

-6.5
pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$4K
24h $819 · liquidity $2K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

FedTrumpFinancePoliticsFed Rates

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes8.5% -6.50.0$4K9.0¢
No91.5% +6.50.0$4K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-3011-0311-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michael Barr formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Michael Barr must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 9% risks 9¢ to win 92¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 8.5% and No at 91.5%, on $4K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$4K in total and $819 in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.