What are the odds on OpenAI right now?

The most traded live market is "Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?", where SpaceX is priced at 81.5% as of November 6, 2026. 39 live markets mention OpenAI.

How do I bet on OpenAI?

These are prediction market contracts, not sportsbook bets. Each pays $1 if the outcome happens. Access depends on your location; see the market page and our legality guides before trading.

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Live market data

OpenAI: live prediction market odds

Every active Polymarket market mentioning OpenAI, ranked by activity, plus how recent ones resolved.

Updated 2026-11-06 01:43 UTC · Source: Polymarket search · 18+

Live markets

mentioning OpenAI

Total volume

$24.2M

across live markets

Most traded

82%

SpaceX in "Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?"

Live markets about OpenAI

Market	Favorite	Price	24h	Volume
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? closes January 2, 2027	SpaceX	81.5%	+10.0	$7.6M
Which company has best AI model end of 2026? closes December 31, 2026	Google	60.5%	0.0	$4.0M
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? closes January 5, 2027	Anthropic	93.5%	+1.0	$120K
Largest private company end of November? closes December 1, 2026	Anthropic	95.9%	+16.9	$36K
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap closes January 1, 2027	No IPO by December 31, 2026	97.3%	+0.1	$2.6M
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap closes January 1, 2028	1.5T+	35.8%	-1.1	$689K
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? closes January 1, 2028	December 31, 2027	55.5%	-1.0	$1.2M
OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...? closes January 1, 2030	December 31, 2029	22.0%	-0.5	$543K
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? closes January 1, 2028	$800B	68.7%	-4.3	$1.6M
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	5.5%	-1.0	$363K
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026? closes January 1, 2027	Saudi Arabia	22.0%	-2.5	$196K
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	3.1%	-0.1	$321K
OpenAI IPO by...? closes July 1, 2027	June 30, 2027	45.5%	-0.5	$3.1M
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026? closes January 1, 2027	Earbuds/Headphones	12.0%	-0.5	$473K
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	3.2%	-2.1	$32K
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? closes January 1, 2027	55%+	78.0%	-0.5	$153K
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO? closes January 1, 2028	<$30B	38.5%	+2.7	$11K
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	20.3%	+1.6	$13K
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...? closes November 16, 2026	November 15	52.0%	-11.5	$7K
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	6.5%	0.0	$85K
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	82.7%	+0.9	$29K
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...? closes January 1, 2027	December 31, 2026	14.0%	-0.5	$505K
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? closes January 1, 2028	Anthropic	98.0%	+0.1	$454K
Dem sweep & US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by end of 2027? closes January 1, 2028	Dem sweep; No US stake	70.5%	-8.7	$23K
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? closes January 1, 2028	SpaceX	83.6%	+2.1	$13K
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? closes January 5, 2027	Meta	92.0%	-2.0	$13K
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31? closes January 5, 2027	Microsoft	81.0%	-5.0	$11K
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? closes January 5, 2027	Google	79.5%	+1.0	$10K
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...? closes January 1, 2027	December 31, 2026	8.0%	0.0	$10K
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	5.3%	-0.1	$10K
Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI by...? closes January 1, 2027	December 31, 2026	17.0%	+0.5	$8K
OpenAI acquired before 2027? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	2.5%	-0.4	$5K
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? closes January 1, 2028	OpenAI	53.5%	0.0	$5K
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	15.5%	-0.5	$3K
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? closes January 1, 2028	OpenAI	51.5%	+2.5	$2K
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	6.0%	-0.5	$1K
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? closes January 1, 2029	Anthropic	76.5%	0.0	$359
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026? closes January 1, 2027	Yes	6.0%	-1.0	$88
Anthropic vs OpenAI - greater valuation growth November 2026 closes December 1, 2026	Anthropic	50.0%	+9.0	$0

Recently resolved

Market	Result	Volume
Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut? June 30, 2026	Closed	$205K
OpenAI social app in 2025? December 31, 2025	Yes	$425K
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025? December 31, 2025	No	$339K
What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model? December 31, 2025	December 11	$10.1M
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...? December 31, 2025	December 13	$2.3M
OpenAI browser in 2025? December 31, 2025	Yes	$899K
OpenAI browser by October 31? October 31, 2025	Yes	$5.5M
Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August? July 31, 2025	Yes	$338K
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July? June 30, 2025	No	$482K
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? December 31, 2024	No	$907K
Ilya still at OpenAI on Jan 1? January 1, 2024	Yes	$49K
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? December 31, 2023	Yes	$381K

About this page

Model releases, IPO and leadership markets. Prices come from Polymarket and read as probabilities. They are set by traders, move with news, and are not forecasts by BetG8. Each market page carries the full rules, a price chart and volume.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the odds on OpenAI right now?: The most traded live market is "Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?", where SpaceX is priced at 81.5% as of November 6, 2026. 39 live markets mention OpenAI.
How do I bet on OpenAI?: These are prediction market contracts, not sportsbook bets. Each pays $1 if the outcome happens. Access depends on your location; see the market page and our legality guides before trading.