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Home / Markets / Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
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Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31, 2026 at 14.5%. $505K traded across 1 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

14.5%
December 31, 2026 · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d -0.5

Volume

$505K
24h $0 · liquidity $5K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

TechOpenAIBig Techsam altmanAI

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 31, 202614.5% 0.0-0.5$98K1.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-1305-1111-06
December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This is a market on whether OpenAI will release a consumer hardware product by the specified date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2026 at 14% risks 14¢ to win 86¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2026 is the favorite at 14.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$505K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $5K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.