Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Google at 60.5%, ahead of Anthropic at 31.0%. $4.0M traded across 15 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 60.5% | 0.0 | |
| Anthropic | 31.0% | -1.5 |
| OpenAI | 4.5% | +0.4 |
| Meta | 0.9% | -0.4 |
| xAI | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Alibaba | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| DeepSeek | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Moonshot | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Z.ai | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Mistral | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Meituan | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Microsoft | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Amazon | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Baidu | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| ByteDance | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Google is the favorite at 60.5%, followed by Anthropic at 31.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $4.0M in total and $38K in the last 24 hours, with about $1.5M of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.