What are the odds that Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 20.5% and No at 79.5%, on $13K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$13K in total and $27 in the last 24 hours, with about $604 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

Live market data

Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 20.5% (+1.1 pts in 24h). $13K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

20.5%

No 79.5% · Trade →

24h move

+1.1

pts · 7d -13.6

Volume

$13K

24h $27 · liquidity $604

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Tech Big Tech AI OpenAI Apple

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	20.5%	+1.1	-13.6	$13K	13.0¢
No	79.5%	-1.1	+13.6	$13K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ari Weinstein ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI. An official announcement of Ari’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Ari indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 21% risks 21¢ to win 80¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 20.5% and No at 79.5%, on $13K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $13K in total and $27 in the last 24 hours, with about $604 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.