How did "OpenAI social app in 2025?" resolve?

It resolved Yes around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 66.0% one day before close, 44.5% one week before and 55.5% one month before.

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OpenAI social app in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: OpenAI social app in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 66.0%; a week before, 44.5%. $425K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved September 30, 2025

Price 1 day before

66.0%

Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

44.5%

30 days before: 55.5%

Volume

$425K

1 outcome

AI Big Tech Tech OpenAI

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$425K
No	LOST	$425K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 66% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a social iOS app owned by OpenAI is available for installation on the US iOS app store by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions. A "social app" refers to an iOS application whose primary function is facilitating social interaction between users, such as messaging, content sharing, or community engagement. The primary resolution source will be the US iOS app store, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "OpenAI social app in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 66.0% one day before close, 44.5% one week before and 55.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $425K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.