What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.8% one day before close, 39.5% one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August?

Resolved market scorecard

Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August?: result and scorecard

Name: Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.8%; a week before, 39.5%. $338K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved May 8, 2025

Price 1 day before

98.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

39.5%

30 days before: –

Volume

$338K

1 outcome

AI OpenAI Tech Finance Acquisitions

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$338K
No	LOST	$338K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Windsurf will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Windsurf will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Windsurf or OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around July 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.8% one day before close, 39.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $338K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.