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Live market data

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Anthropic at 98.0%, ahead of OpenAI at 2.0%. $454K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

98.0%
Anthropic · Trade →

24h move

+0.1
pts · 7d -0.1

Volume

$454K
24h $0 · liquidity $13K

Closes

January 1, 2028
421 days left

sam altmanOpenAIBusinessIPOsIPO

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Anthropic98.0% +0.1-0.1$454K2.2¢
OpenAI2.0% -0.1+0.1$454K2.2¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-3106-1911-06
AnthropicOpenAI

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Anthropic at 98% risks 98¢ to win 2¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Anthropic is the favorite at 98.0%, followed by OpenAI at 2.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$454K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $13K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.