Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.2%; a week before, 96.2%. $482K traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is as advanced as GPT-3 by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models), speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper), specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) or models that otherwise do not meet the listed criteria will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?" resolve?
- It resolved No around June 30, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.2% one day before close, 96.2% one week before and 64.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $482K across 1 outcome.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.