How did "Ilya still at OpenAI on Jan 1?" resolve?

It resolved Yes around January 1, 2024.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.5% one day before close, 96.0% one week before and 90.0% one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

Ilya still at OpenAI on Jan 1?: result and scorecard

Name: Ilya still at OpenAI on Jan 1? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 97.5%; a week before, 96.0%. $49K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved January 3, 2024

Price 1 day before

97.5%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

96.0%

30 days before: 90.0%

Volume

$49K

1 outcome

All OpenAI employment technology AI

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$49K
No	LOST	$49K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 98% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever, co-founder and the Chief Scientist at OpenAI, remains in a full-time position with OpenAI through 11:59 PM ET on January 1, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Ilya officially ends his affiliation with OpenAI for any reason before the resolution date. The resolution source is official OpenAI announcements and official statements by Ilya, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Ilya still at OpenAI on Jan 1?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around January 1, 2024.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.5% one day before close, 96.0% one week before and 90.0% one month before.
How much was traded?: $49K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.