Dem sweep & US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by end of 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the US federal government takes a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("US stake" or "No US stake"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic: This component is "US stake" if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it is "No US stake". Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in OpenAI or Anthropic or in a legal vehicle that primarily owns either company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund or state-owned enterprise) will count. Non-equity financial instruments, or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government, will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, between market creation and the deadline will be sufficient. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement will not count. The resolution source for this component will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting. House and Senate control: A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and ho