Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

"Grand Theft Auto VI" is scheduled to release November 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the officially announced sales revenue for "Grand Theft Auto VI" in the first 24 hours following its release exceeds $815.7 million, the current Guinness World Records-recognized highest-grossing videogame revenue in 24 hours (set by Grand Theft Auto V in 2013). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Sales revenue" refers to any officially announced U.S. dollar figure for revenue from sales of the game during the specified period, including retail sell-through, gross revenue, or net bookings. If multiple qualifying figures are announced, the highest will be used. Announcements that state only the number of units sold (e.g., "25 million copies sold") will not qualify. If such a figure is announced in a currency other than U.S. dollars, this market will resolve according to the converted value in U.S. dollars using the applicable conversion rate at the time of announcement. This market will only consider sales revenue figures for the first 24 hours of wide release, beginning at the game's standard worldwide launch. Early-access periods for premium or special editions will not be considered part of the first 24 hours. A figure described as the game's "first day" or "launch day" sales revenue will be treated as a first 24 hour figure, regardless of staggered release times across time zones. Figures covering any other timeframe will not be considered. Figures stated as a lower bound (e.g., "over $1 billion" or "more than $800 million") will qualify only if the stated bound exceeds $815.7 million. If no exact figure is available, figures stated as approximations (e.g., "about" or "around") will be taken at their stated value, while figures described as "nearly," "almost," or "just under" a value will be treated as just below that value. Revenue from pre-orders recognized as part of launch sales and from all editions of the game, including premium and special editions, will count. Revenue from in-game purchases, including GTA Online currency, will not count. This market will only consider officially announced first 24 hour sales revenue figures from a developer or distributor of GTA VI or an authorized representative thereof. Recognition of a new record by Guinness World Records is not required.