GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is November 12 at 17.4%, ahead of No release by November 30 at 15.7%. $74K traded across 27 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| November 12 | 17.4% | +8.3 |
| No release by November 30 | 15.7% | +13.2 |
| November 6 | 15.0% | -13.0 |
| November 10 | 7.7% | -0.7 |
| November 16 | 4.6% | +4.0 |
| November 11 | 4.0% | +0.9 |
| November 9 | 3.7% | -5.3 |
| November 27 | 3.5% | +3.0 |
| November 7 | 1.4% | -0.1 |
| November 29 | 1.0% | +0.4 |
| November 13 | 0.8% | +0.3 |
| November 24 | 0.8% | 0.0 |
| November 18 | 0.6% | -5.1 |
| November 22 | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| November 23 | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| November 28 | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| November 14 | 0.3% | -0.2 |
| November 15 | 0.3% | -0.3 |
| November 8 | 0.3% | -1.3 |
| November 17 | 0.3% | -0.3 |
| November 19 | 0.3% | -0.3 |
| November 20 | 0.3% | -0.3 |
| November 21 | 0.3% | -0.3 |
| November 25 | 0.3% | -0.3 |
| November 26 | 0.3% | -0.3 |
| November 5 | 0.1% | -34.0 |
| November 30 | 0.1% | -0.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, November 12 is the favorite at 17.4%, followed by No release by November 30 at 15.7%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $74K in total and $38K in the last 24 hours, with about $32K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.