SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX makes a mobile phone plan available for purchase in the United States between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “SpaceX” refers to the company known as SpaceX at market creation. Changes to the names or branding of SpaceX, its subsidiaries, acquired carriers, or their mobile services will not affect resolution. A mobile phone plan means a mobile service sold directly by SpaceX or an entity it directly or indirectly controls that gives the subscriber a U.S. phone number with voice calls, text messaging, and mobile data. Voice calls and text messaging available only through third-party internet applications will not satisfy these requirements. A qualifying plan may use SpaceX’s own network, another carrier’s network, or a combination of satellite and terrestrial networks. Plans offered by a carrier that SpaceX acquires a controlling interest in will count once the acquisition is completed and the plan satisfies all other requirements of these rules. Satellite services sold as an add-on to another carrier's plan, such as T-Mobile's T-Satellite, will not count. A mobile phone plan is available when members of the general public are able to purchase it directly from SpaceX or an entity it directly or indirectly controls and activate and begin using the required voice, text messaging, and mobile data services. Availability to customers in at least one U.S. state will qualify. Availability limited to customers outside the United States, internal or employee testing, waitlists, and invite-only programs will not qualify. Announcements, pre-orders, and deposits alone will not qualify; the mobile phone plan must be available by the deadline. Acquiring spectrum licenses or network assets, or obtaining regulatory approval, alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Starlink and SpaceX (including their official websites and https://x.com/Starlink, https://x.com/SpaceX); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.