When will Gemini Carbon be released?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is November 9–November 15 at 80.5%, ahead of November 16–November 22 at 11.3%. $178K traded across 10 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| November 9–November 15 | 80.5% | 0.0 |
| November 16–November 22 | 11.3% | 0.0 |
| November 2–November 8 | 2.1% | -3.9 |
| November 23–November 29 | 2.1% | +0.2 |
| November 30–December 6 | 1.6% | -0.3 |
| No release by January 3 | 0.2% | -0.4 |
| December 7–December 13 | 0.1% | -0.3 |
| December 14–December 20 | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| December 21–December 27 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| December 28–January 3 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google. A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "When will Gemini Carbon be released?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, November 9–November 15 is the favorite at 80.5%, followed by November 16–November 22 at 11.3%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 4, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $178K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $77K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.