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Prediction market scorecard: October 2026
For every high-volume market that resolved, we record what Polymarket priced the eventual outcome at one day and one week before close. This is the record, good and bad.
Favorites that won
54%
20 of 37 markets where the eventual result was priced above 50% a day before
Brier score (1 day out)
0.248
0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip
Markets graded
40
highest-volume resolutions, October 2026
Resolved markets, October 2026
| Market | Result | 1 day before |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil Presidential Election resolved October 26, 2026 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 21.5% |
| Fed Decision in October? resolved October 28, 2026 | No change | 94.5% |
| Which coalition will form the next Dutch government? resolved February 23, 2026 | VVD + CDA + D66 | 99.8% |
| Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? resolved May 14, 2026 | Kevin Warsh | 100.0% |
| MLB World Series Champion 2026 resolved October 29, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers | 91.6% |
| NBA: LeBron James Next Team resolved July 27, 2026 | Philadelphia 76ers | 99.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by...? resolved September 20, 2026 | September 30 | 99.1% |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in September? resolved September 21, 2026 | ↑ 85,000 | 33.5% |
| Israeli Legislative Election Winner resolved October 31, 2026 | Likud | 99.4% |
| Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC resolved October 18, 2026 | Arsenal FC | 59.5% |
| Lions vs. Panthers resolved October 5, 2026 | Panthers | 35.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? resolved October 6, 2026 | No | 100.0% |
| Colts vs. Commanders resolved October 4, 2026 | Colts | 66.5% |
| Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner resolved October 26, 2026 | Student List – Students Win | 28.0% |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers resolved October 23, 2026 | 76ers | 57.5% |
| AS Roma vs. Real Madrid CF resolved October 14, 2026 | Real Madrid CF | 48.5% |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place resolved October 5, 2026 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 39.1% |
| LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage resolved October 30, 2026 | LOS | 28.5% |
| FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF resolved October 25, 2026 | Real Madrid CF | 25.5% |
| Bills vs. Rams resolved October 13, 2026 | Bills | 38.5% |
| LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In resolved October 17, 2026 | Cloud9 | – |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory resolved October 26, 2026 | Lula da Silva <4% | 18.5% |
| LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In resolved October 15, 2026 | Cloud9 | 40.5% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Lakers resolved October 28, 2026 | Trail Blazers | 43.5% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers resolved October 20, 2026 | 49ers | 78.5% |
| Falcons vs. Saints resolved October 6, 2026 | Falcons | 47.5% |
| Croatia vs. Spain resolved October 6, 2026 | Spain | 78.5% |
| Chiefs vs. Seahawks resolved October 26, 2026 | Seahawks | 58.5% |
| Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC resolved October 24, 2026 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 23.5% |
| Ravens vs. Falcons resolved October 12, 2026 | Ravens | 38.5% |
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026? resolved September 10, 2026 | ↑ $100 | 54.5% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks resolved October 21, 2026 | 76ers | 38.5% |
| Broncos vs. 49ers resolved October 4, 2026 | 49ers | 57.5% |
| 76ers vs. Hornets resolved November 1, 2026 | 76ers | 51.5% |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage resolved October 29, 2026 | Invictus Gaming | 59.5% |
| What price will Ethereum hit in September? resolved September 21, 2026 | ↑ 2,800 | 45.5% |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs resolved October 11, 2026 | Team Spirit | – |
| LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage resolved October 25, 2026 | LYON | – |
| Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC resolved October 13, 2026 | Club Atlético de Madrid | 50.5% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage resolved October 31, 2026 | Hanwha Life Esports | 71.5% |
"1 day before" is the Polymarket price of the outcome that eventually happened, 24 hours before the market was closed for resolution. Brier score averages (1 - price)² over graded markets.
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
How to read the scorecard
Calibration, not hit rate, is the real test: a market is doing its job if outcomes priced at 70% happen about 70% of the time, which means favorites should lose roughly 30% of the time at that price. A Brier score near 0.1 across a month is strong; 0.25 is no better than a coin flip. Sample sizes here are small, so treat one month as a snapshot. Methodology and the full court and enforcement data live in the tracker and editorial standards.
Frequently asked questions
- How accurate are prediction markets?
- In October 2026, 54% of the 37 highest-volume Polymarket markets resolved to the outcome that was priced above 50% a day before close, with a Brier score of 0.248.
- What is a Brier score?
- The average squared difference between the forecast probability and the outcome (1 if it happened, 0 if not). Lower is better; a constant 50% forecast scores 0.25.
- Which markets are included?
- Resolved Polymarket events with more than $50K of volume in the selected window, up to 40 per month, graded on the price one day and one week before close.